Bluegrass Blues For Grimes In Kentucky

Lexington Herald-Leader Headline: “Bluegrass Poll: Gaining Momentum, McConnell Holds 4-Point Advantage Over Grimes” (Sam Youngman, “Bluegrass Poll: Gaining Momentum, McConnell Holds 4-Point Advantage Over Grimes,” Lexington Herald-Leader, 8/30/14)

Among Likely Kentucky Voters, Sen. Mitch McConnell Holds A Four-Point Lead Over Alison Lundergan Grimes. (Bluegrass Poll, 569 LV, MoE 4.2%, 8/25-27/14)

  • McConnell’s Lead Has Expanded From A Two-Point Lead In July. “With less than 10 weeks until Election Day, the poll of 569 likely voters shows McConnell with a 4-point lead over Grimes, up from a 2 point margin a month ago. McConnell now leads Grimes 46 percent to 42 percent, with Libertarian candidate David Patterson at 5 percent.”(Sam Youngman, “Bluegrass Poll: Gaining Momentum, McConnell Holds 4-Point Advantage Over Grimes,” Lexington Herald-Leader, 8/30/14)

McConnell’s Campaign “Has Gained Momentum In The Last Month, Propelled By Huge Leads Over Democrat Grimes In Western And Eastern Kentucky And Among Men.” “The re-election campaign of U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has gained momentum in the last month, propelled by huge leads over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes in Western and Eastern Kentucky and among men, according to a new Bluegrass Poll.” (Sam Youngman, “Bluegrass Poll: Gaining Momentum, McConnell Holds 4-Point Advantage Over Grimes,” Lexington Herald-Leader, 8/30/14)

  • “Despite Grimes’ Efforts To Target Female Voters, McConnell Continues To Poll Equally Well With Them — 45 Percent Chose Grimes, And 44 Percent Chose McConnell.” (Sam Youngman, “Bluegrass Poll: Gaining Momentum, McConnell Holds 4-Point Advantage Over Grimes,” Lexington Herald-Leader, 8/30/14)

Democrats Have A Reason To Worry: Obama Is Deeply Unpopular In Kentucky

57 Percent Of Kentuckians Hold An Unfavorable View Of Obama, While Only 29 Percent Have A Favorable View. (Bluegrass Poll, 647 A, MoE 3.9%, 8/25-27/14)

  • Among Independents, Obama Is Even More Unpopular, With 23 Percent Holding A Favorable View And 62 Percent Holding An Unfavorable View. (Bluegrass Poll, 647 A, MoE 3.9%, 8/25-27/14)
  • Even 35 Percent Of Kentucky Democrats Hold An Unfavorable View Of Obama. (Bluegrass Poll, 647 A, MoE 3.9%, 8/25-27/14)

On Both Foreign And Domestic Issues, Kentucky Voters Trust McConnell Over Grimes

44 Percent Believe McConnell Will “Most Effectively Fight For Kentucky’s Coal Interests,” While Only 22 Percent Favor Grimes. (Bluegrass Poll, 647 A, MoE 3.9%, 8/25-27/14)

43 Percent Trust McConnell On Foreign Policy, While Only 28 Percent Trust Grimes. (Bluegrass Poll, 647 A, MoE 3.9%, 8/25-27/14)

40 Percent Trust McConnell On The Economy, While 38 Percent Trust Grimes. (Bluegrass Poll, 647 A, MoE 3.9%, 8/25-27/14)

40 Percent Trust McConnell On Immigration, Compared To 32 Percent Who Trust Grimes. (Bluegrass Poll, 647 A, MoE 3.9%, 8/25-27/14)

Kentuckians Favor Republicans Over Democrats For Control Of The Senate In 2014

47 Percent Of Kentuckians Think Republicans Would Do A Better Job Controlling The Senate, While 43 Percent Favor Democrats. (Bluegrass Poll, 647 A, MoE 3.9%, 8/25-27/14)

More False Ads From Democrats

Today, PolitiFact Rated Sen. Mark Pryor’s New Ebola Ad As “Mostly False”

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PolitiFact: Pryor’s Ad “Ignores Critical Facts That Would Give A Different Impression, So We Rate It Mostly False.” “A Pryor for Senate ad said, ‘Tom Cotton voted against preparing America for pandemics like Ebola.’ Cotton voted against one version of a 2013 pandemic and emergency preparedness bill. However, Cotton voted for the final version, which Pryor also supported. The bill easily became law. The statement contains an element of truth but ignores critical facts that would give a different impression, so we rate it Mostly False.” (Lauren Carroll, “Pryor Says Cotton Voted ‘No’ On Pandemic Prevention Bill, Ignores Cotton’s ‘Yes’ Vote,” PolitiFact, 8/28/14)

  • Pryor’s Ebola Ad Has Been Called “Scare-Tastic” And Made For “Saturday Night Live.” “WashingtonPost.com called the commercial ‘scare-tastic political advertising.’ And MSNBC’s program Morning Joe aired the entire 30-second commercial before blasting it. ‘Good Lord … Seriously?’ asked host Joe Scarborough. ‘Is this a Saturday Night Live ad?’” (Bill Bowden and Claudia Lauer, “Ebola Ad On Cotton Accurate, Pryor Says,” Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 8/28/14)

Earlier This Week In North Carolina, Multiple Fact Checkers Found That The Senate Majority PAC’s New Ad Was False

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In North Carolina, PolitiFact Gave The Latest Ad From Harry Reid’s Senate Majority PAC A “False” Rating. “A Senate Majority PAC ad said, ‘Thom Tillis gives tax breaks to yacht and jet owners.’ North Carolina lawmakers, under Tillis’ leadership, overhauled the state’s tax code in 2013. But they left in place a 23-year-old tax break for boats and aircraft in tact. By using the word ‘give,’ the statement suggests Tillis created the tax breaks, which he didn’t. Because the ad turns inaction into action, we rate this claim False.” (Lauren Carroll, “Ad Says Senate Candidate Thom Tillis Gave Tax Breaks To North Carolina’s Yacht And Jet Owners,” PolitiFact, 8/26/14)

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WRAL Also Gave The Senate Majority PAC Ad “A Red Light” Due To “Leaky Logic.” “Due to the leaky logic behind the yachts and jets claim, we give it a red light.” (Mark Binker, “FACT CHECK: Did Tillis Give Tax Breaks To Yacht Owners,” WRAL, 8/27/14)

  • According To WRAL, Senate Majority PAC “Displayed A Willful Disregard For The Truth.”  “Stop right there. Our fact checking has raised serious problems with the statement in question. The speaker in question either displayed a willful disregard for the truth, made an accusation without a basis in fact or has gotten their math very wrong.” (“Red Light, Green Light, Fact Check: A Guide To How We Make Our Calls,” WRAL, 3/28/14)
     

Trouble In The Hawkeye State For Democrats

USA Today Headline: “Poll: A Deadlock In Iowa’s Key Senate Race” (Susan Page, “Poll: A Deadlock In Iowa’s Key Senate Race,” USA Today, 8/27/14)

A USA Today/Suffolk University Poll Finds The Iowa Senate Race “Deadlocked,” Despite Early Campaign Forecasts That Claimed Democrats “Were Favored.” “The Senate race in Iowa, one of a handful likely to determine whether Republicans can seize unified control of Congress in November, is deadlocked. Literally. A USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll of 500 likely Iowa voters, taken Saturday through Tuesday, finds 201 supporting Democrat Bruce Braley and 200 supporting Republican Joni Ernst in a contest in which Democrats initially were favored. Ernst has made it a too-close-to-call race thanks in part to a sly TV ad about her skill in castrating pigs and some Braley verbal gaffes.” (Susan Page, “Poll: A Deadlock In Iowa’s Key Senate Race,” USA Today, 8/27/14)

And The Poll Finds Widespread Disapproval For Obama And ObamaCare

Only 42 Percent Of Iowans Approve Of The Job Obama Is Doing As President, While 52 Percent Disapprove. (USA Today/Suffolk University Poll, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%, 8/23-26/14)

  • Only 36 Percent Of Independents In Iowa Approve Of The Job Obama Is Doing As President, While 58 Percent Disapprove. (USA Today/Suffolk University Poll, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%, 8/23-26/14)
  • Only 20 Percent Of Undecided Voters In Iowa’s U.S. Senate Election Approve Of The Job Obama Is Doing As President, While 65 Percent Disapprove. (USA Today/Suffolk University Poll, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%, 8/23-26/14)

51 Percent Of Iowans View Obama Unfavorably, While Only 46 Percent View The President Favorably.  (USA Today/Suffolk University Poll, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%, 8/23-26/14)

  • Only 38 Percent Of Independents Viewed Obama Favorably, While 55 Viewed The President Unfavorably. (USA Today/Suffolk University Poll, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%, 8/23-26/14)

When Asked If ObamaCare Was Good Or Bad For Iowa Generally, 46 Percent Responded That It Was “Generally Bad,” While Only 40 Percent Said It Was “Generally Good.” (USA Today/Suffolk University Poll, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%, 8/23-26/14)

49 Percent Of Independents In Iowa Said ObamaCare Was “Generally Bad,” While Only 33 Percent Responded That It Was “Generally Good.” (USA Today/Suffolk University Poll, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%, 8/23-26/14)